Two weeks ago, on August 25, 2024, Hezbollah began a massive attack against Israel. They planned to launch over 7,000 missiles and drones to overwhelm Israel’s defense systems. Satellite surveillance images of the movement and loading of ballistic missiles into launchers gave Israel about fifteen minutes advanced notice of the attack.
To prevent an attack that would probably have overwhelmed its defense systems, Israel sent over 100 fighter jets to destroy as many of Hezbollah’s rocket launcher barrels as possible. These barrels were aimed at northern and central Israel. Some targets were located less than three miles from the border. Over 320 rockets were still launched. The Israel Defense Forces (“IDF”) estimates it destroyed almost 7,000 launcher tubes and twenty percent of Hezbollah’s short-range missile inventory.
Let’s analyze the effort required for Israel to be ready to respond to this potential attack with just fifteen minutes’ notice. Pilots had to be located very close to their jets. The jets had to be fully armed and fueled, and this status had to be maintained during the two-week period Hezbollah was making threats.
Assuming four pilot shifts a day and six days a week, Israel needed 467 fighter jet pilots to be constantly nearby and on alert. This number exceeds the amount of regular Israeli Air Force fighter jet pilots and requires a large number of pilots called up from the reserves. Called-up Reserve Pilots are away from their families and regular jobs, which hurts the economy.
Hezbollah has between 150,000 to 200,000 missiles and is well-trained. Losing 10,000 missiles does not materially affect them very much. Hezbollah also has a fleet of sophisticated drones. With its missiles and drones, it can hit all areas of Israel. This sets up a situation similar to a boxing match. Israel only tries to block punches and avoid a devasting knockout blow. At the same time, Hezbollah needs only to get lucky once in a while, throwing jabs, roundhouses, and knock-out punches to severely damage Israel’s infrastructure and kill its citizens.
This defensive-only boxing match strategy drains both the economic strength and morale of Israel. Iran will constantly re-supply missiles to Hezbollah while Israel’s munitions inventory will continue to deplete and cost a lot of money to re-supply. As this defensive war drags on, world opinion has also been turning against Israel, which is a goal of Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah, and Iran.
The United States has limited Israel’s courses of action to defensive only. The Biden-Harris Administration has maintained a “red line” on Israel launching an offensive against Hezbollah or Iran for fear of creating a regional war. It also regularly states that the death count, vastly overstated by Hamas, is too high without mentioning that Hamas uses human shields and that more than 50% of the deaths are of Hamas fighters. For instance, on August 12, 2024, there was an Israeli airstrike on a former school in Gaza City. Hamas stated in its English-language press release that over 100 Palestinians were killed. In the Arabic version of the same press release, Hamas stated that 40 civilians were killed. The IDF has subsequently identified that, in this precision bombing of just three former classrooms, 31 of the people killed were known terrorists, including their roles in Hamas. In addition, this attack had been delayed several times until civilians left the targeted area.
In essence, the US has tied Israel’s hands behind its back. Military defense only, without a military offense, most likely ensures that there will be no end to this war. Wars end when one side surrenders, not when the enemy retains the resources to, and is determined to continue to, kill you.
More than 100 rockets from Hezbollah were fired on September 4th and another 50 on September 7th. Rocket attacks occur almost every day. There have been over 8,000 fired in total in the last year. No country should be forced to endure any continuing attacks, let alone on this scale. Secretary of State Antony Blinkin very recently said that Washington would support an Israeli strike against Hezbollah equipment or forces poised to launch an imminent attack. However, he cautioned Israel against using the opportunity to mount a broader offensive against Hezbollah.
The US policy of defending Israel from attacks but preventing the destruction of the attacking forces (and their sponsor, Iran) has and will continue to lead to a constant erosion of Israel’s economy, safety, and munitions. It also requires the US to maintain a large portion of its military assets in the Middle East, which weakens its presence in other parts of the world. To defend a country under attack, blocking the attacks is not enough. Strong offensive action is required to eliminate the threats and end the war. Wars rarely end in stalemate.
