Were Israel’s Goals Achievable?
By: Paul S Bachow
On October 7, 2023, Hamas and other jihadist organizations (“Hamas+”)1 initiated a war against Israel. Shortly thereafter, Israel declared that its military would (1) promptly retrieve the hostages and (2) eradicate Hamas+. These goals were not achievable because Hamas+ is based on a belief system that only the followers of their radical branch of the Muslim religion are entitled to live on this planet. The process of killing non-believers is called jihad. Recent polls indicate that 60% of the citizens of Gaza support jihad.
Belief systems have been ingrained into societies over hundreds of years and are extremely difficult to change.2 To eliminate Hamas+ within a few months would require the extermination of about 60% of the citizens of Gaza, something Israel and the world would not support. To defeat Hamas+ without killing such a large part of the population would require their unconditional surrender and turning over control of Gaza to an anti-Jihad political or military organization.
Retrieving the Hostages
Even though Israel captured thousands of terrorists, military actions did not result in the prompt return of hostages. Except in a few rare cases, the hostage returns have come from prisoner exchanges.3 Because the hostages are hidden in tunnels and would be killed by their guards if Israel Defense Forces (“IDF”) enter the place in which they are held, the hostages could not be freed by military action. Hostage guards believe they will go to their next and a better life if they are killed committing jihad. They will not surrender their prisoners to save their lives. Murdering a hostage, in their view, is an act of jihad and gets them to Allah’s paradise.
As soon as the hostage exchange ceasefire agreement was signed, and before the first hostages were released, Hamas+ was already streaming video that it will never stop fighting until Israel is destroyed. For each hostage released Hamas+ is receiving from Israel a large number of convicted murderers and terrorists. For example, the last four hostages were released in return for 200 terrorists, 121 of which had been sentenced to life in prison. The world’s media too often portrays these events as releases of Hamas+ freedom fighters, rarely of terrorists. A 50 to 1 ratio (4/200) shows that Hamas+ has successfully negotiated a very favorable agreement.
Eradicating Hamas
Since Hamas+ considers civilian deaths a necessary propaganda method for obtaining global support, those deaths are considered in the pursuit of jihad. It is also estimated that Hamas+ has recruited 20,000 new terrorists to replace those killed in battle. This is very strong evidence that Hamas is not going away soon. Hence, the eradication of Hamas+ is not close to occurring.
Parts of Gaza have been destroyed, but Hamas+ has used scenes of destroyed areas to garner world sympathy and contributions of supplies and money. The fact that the destroyed sites, including Mosques, schools, apartment buildings, and hospitals, were almost all used to launch rockets has been forgotten by the media. A picture of a destroyed building is more powerful than in written explanation that the building was used to store or launch rockets. Media tends to dramatize specific aspects of war without providing the overall context.
As of now it is clear that Israel has not achieved its original goals of quickly returning the hostages and eradicating Hamas+. Both were unrealistic goals to set at the start of the war. From now on any goals that Israel sets must be realistic and objectively obtainable.
Historically, a victory is the unconditional surrender of an enemy. In today’s culture a victory also includes achieving political change such as regime change and a positive public perception of the conflict and its outcomes. Hence, we know that this war is not over. Who will win the next active phase of this war?
A “Day After Plan”
To win the next phase, often called “the day after,” Israel must have more achievable goals. To end the proxy wars against Israel and bring peace to the Middle East, I suggest that Israel and the United States, plus a coalition of other countries (“USA+), pursue the following goals:
- Totally destroy Iran’s nuclear capability.
- Cause a regime change in Iran to a democracy from a theocracy. Their new government must commit to stopping all financial support, military training and arms supplies to Hamas+ and other Iranian proxies.
- Destroy the military capabilities of all of Iran’s proxies.
At the same time the USA+ needs to get the financial funders of Hamas+ to:
- Stop funding Hamas+ and all other jihad organizations.
- Force a complete change in the school curriculum throughout the Middle East to recognize Israel’s right to exist and the benefits of peace and religious freedom, and a change in their religious teachings to one praising peace and rejecting hatred and jihad. 4
- Exclude Hamas+ from all rebuilding efforts and humanitarian supply distributions. This will remove Hamas+’s control over the citizens of Gaza.
To achieve these above six objectives requires the strong support of the United States. The USA+ should immediately stop funding all organizations that directly or indirectly fund Hamas+. The USA+ must also pressure Qatar, the United Nations, Egypt, European nations, Turkey, and other countries to stop funding Hamas+. Israel does not have the power to accomplish this by itself. The United States must lead in this effort and apply significant pressure to cause these changes. Achieving these changes will bring peace to the Middle East, a region that has rarely had peace.
Footnotes:
1 For purposes of this article, the term “Hamas+” includes Hamas, the Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine (PIJ), the Popular Resistance Committees (PRC), the Palestinian Authority (PA), and Salafi Jihadist Groups such as Jaysh al-Ummah and Jund Ansar. All of these groups teach that Jews should be stoned and killed, and that Israel must be annihilated.
2 Beliefs can only be changed in a society open to diverse ideas and political thoughts. Even then, it would probably take about 60 years for the belief system of a group to change because you need the old belief mindset people to die off and be replaced with younger people who have different beliefs.
3 Unless you say the IDF had to capture enough terrorists so they could exchange a large number of them for the hostages. The current hostage agreement exchanges about 50 terrorists for each hostage. This ratio only encourages more hostage-taking in the future.4 The Palestinian Authority also needs to stop teaching hatred and paying for the slaying of Israelis. It must also change to only teaching that the Muslim religion is a religion of peace and revoke the cleric license of anyone promoting or teaching jihad.
4 The Palestinian Authority also needs to stop teaching hatred and paying for the slaying of Israelis. It must also change to only teaching that the Muslim religion is a religion of peace and revoke the cleric license of anyone promoting or teaching Jihad.
